Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World

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What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Arguing from an exciting and original perspective, Goldstone suggests that great revolutions were the product of 'ecological crises' that occurred when inflexible political, economic, and social institutions were overwhelmed by the cumulative pressure of population growth on limited available resources. Moreover, he contends that the causes of the great revolutions of Europe ��the English and French revolutions� were similar to those of the great rebellions of Asia, which shattered dynasties in Ottoman Turkey, China, and Japan.

The author observes that revolutions and rebellions have more often produced a crushing state orthodoxy than liberal institutions, leading to the conclusion that perhaps it is vain to expect revolution to bring democracy and economic progress. Instead, contends Goldstone, the path to these goals must begin with respect for individual liberty rather than authoritarian movements of 'national liberation.'

Arguing that the threat of revolution is still with us, Goldstone urges us to heed the lessons of the past. He sees in the United States a repetition of the behavior patterns that have led to internal decay and international decline in the past, a situation calling for new leadership and careful attention to the balance between our consumption and our resources.

Meticulously researched, forcefully argued, and strikingly original, Revolutions and Rebellions in the Early Modern World is a tour de force by a brilliant young scholar. It is a book that will surely engender much discussion and debate.

Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World Review

This very interesting and provocative book is an effort to explain the genesis of recurrent rebellions/revolutions in early modern Europe and comparable other Eurasian societies. It is based on careful reading of the enormous literature surrounding 17th century Europe, the French Revolution, the Ottoman Empire, the Ming-Qing transition, and the fall of the Tokugawa shogunate. Goldstone is also a clear writer who presents his ideas very well.

Rather than taking on the whole issue of revolution, Goldstone begins by restricting himself largely to a smaller but crucial question; what was responsible for state failure in the early modern world? Goldstone introduces a multifactorial model with 3 key components; inability of the state to raise sufficient revenues to finance itself, fissured elites, and disaffected marginal popular groups that could be mobilized for violence. This sounds fairly vague but Goldstone introduces a single driving force that generates the 3 key components; demographic expansion. In Goldstone's model, population growth in these pre-industrial economies leads to inflation with subsequent erosion of state (and individual) purchasing power. Coupled with the increasing real costs of important state activities like the costs of warfare, this leads to fiscal crises for the state. Population growth, often accompanied by considerable turnover of the upper classes, leads to increased competition among elites for privileged positions, especially state patronage which the financially strapped states cannot accomodate. The resulting insecurity among and competition among elites often leads to an adversarial relationship to the state at it seeks to improve its revenue base. Finally, demographic growth leads to a reservoir of groups, displaced peasants, marginalized urban workers, who can form popular shock troops for any violent actions.

Goldstone applies this model systematically to early modern Europe, specifically 17th century Britain and 18th century France. His formulation is a considerable success in the context of explaining the outbreak of the English Civil War and the French Revolution. Goldstone's model also does well in explaining why other turbulent events, like the revolt of Catalonia or the default of Louis XIV's government didn't generate state failure. He then proceeds to demonstrate the generality of the model by thoughtful application to Ottoman Turkey and Ming China. There is also an interesting discussion of Tokugawa Japan, something of an outlier and Goldstone argues well that this is an exception that proves the rule case. Its certainly possible to argue with aspects of Goldstone's model and its application. For example, I think some aspects of his interpretation of late 17th century Britain are wrong, and I would argue with his exact explanation of how demographic upturns ended, but this is overall a very impressive effort.

Goldstone also discusses what can happen after state failure. He as more speculative but quite interesting set of discussions of how state failure can lead to revolution and what factors lead to specific revolutionary outcomes. Like the rest of this book, this is based on a shrewd reading of much interesting literature and is presented well.

In addition to the value of Goldstone's broad synthesis, this book also contains a number of valuable summaries of relevant topic. The discussion of the difficult issue of French public finance during the 18th century, for example, is outstanding.

While Goldstone may not have everything correct, this book provides a very creditable framework for understanding a broad sweep of history. An outstanding achievement.

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